China’s Yuan Fix Misses Estimates Amid Economic Data Revision
China set the yuan's daily fixing at 7.0358 per dollar, a 301-pip deviation from market expectations—the widest gap since 2018. The MOVE followed the offshore yuan's breach of the 7-per-dollar threshold, rattling Beijing policymakers who seek currency stability without inviting excessive capital inflows.
Simultaneously, the National Bureau of Statistics revised China's 2024 GDP downward by 101.8 billion yuan to 134.8 trillion yuan ($19.23 trillion), casting doubt on earlier projections of surpassing 140 trillion yuan by 2025. The offshore yuan held firm at 7.0024, defying the weaker fixing as analysts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America forecast further depreciation beyond 7 per dollar in 2026.
Domestic economists and former central bankers are advocating for a stronger yuan to reduce export dependency and ease trade tensions. "A firmer currency recalibrates growth engines," remarked a Shanghai-based strategist, echoing the policy dilemma between competitiveness and structural reform.